Archive for December, 2007

Economics, Life

Life after peak oil

Gregory Clark, a professor from University of California, Davis wrote a brilliant article about how it will be like living with lower energy consumption. For some reason this kind of life is already reality in many places outside the US. London, Singapore, or many cities in Asia.

Many people think mistakenly that modern prosperity was founded on this fossil energy revolution, and that when the oil and coal is gone, it is back to the Stone Age. If we had no fossil energy, then we would be forced to rely on an essentially unlimited amount of solar power, available at five times current energy costs. With energy five times as expensive as at present we would take a substantial hit to incomes. Our living standard would decline by about 11 percent. But we would still be fantastically rich compared to the pre-industrial world.

China, Globalization

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd

WSJ has an interesting article and video about a visit at Chery Automobile, China’s largest car producer. Interesting detail: In 2003 they hired an Austrian engineering company to help them develop their new internal combustion engine.Link 

Economics, Globalization

Christmas is coming – all the way from China

I had to write this essay in response to an “TheGueardianWeekly” article published in 2006. Find a copy of the article here.

For the sandal wearing end of the population Christmas has always been a great opportunity to fret about all kinds of so called “inequalities” and “imbalances” that are just as visible during the rest of the year, but are being picked up by keen reporters especially around Christmas. May it be children in Africa or exploitative work practices in less developed countries far away.

The article “Christmas is coming – all the way from China” is another example for this annual sorry affair. First the article mentions a container ship loaded with Christmas goods from China. Like an unstoppable apocalyptic rider the ship is coming closer and closer to fortress Europe. Ready to dump its bloody load, a product of inhuman exploitation and brutal slavery at our doorsteps. Or so the mainstream press tries to make us think. What they don’t tell you is that this mysterious ship is owned by the Danish Mærsk Group, number 138 of Fortune 500. They also don’t tell you how much European companies and consumers are gaining from trading with China. Those gains don’t only come from cheaper goods consumers are able to buy (which keeps inflation lower than it otherwise would be), but also from a greater diversity of goods they can choose from. Without international trade our life would be a lot poorer. Just imagine Christmas without (Vietnamese) tea, (Japanese) Playstations or (Korean) mobile phones. Pretty dull, isn’t it?Next the a article mentions the growing UK-trade deficit with China, which is mainly a result of an artificially low RMB. This exchange rate imbalance is very expensive for China to sustain and has already started to adjust, though Chinese authorities have chosen the slow path here because they want to give their domestic producers a chance to adjust to the new market conditions, ie less competition on price and more on quality and technology.

The article also makes the point about workers being exploited in China. Of course it’s tempting to believe that the poor Chinese teenager who stitched one’s trainers falls on his simple bed of straw after working for 15 hours in a row. Though the reality is different. Just ask any European who works in China and is responsible for any kind of human resource management. They will tell you that China has the world’s most competitive labor market, especially for employers. In most so-called first-tier cities like 上海 (Shanghai),北京 (Beijing),南京 (Nanjing) or 广州(Guangzhou) wages are already reaching international levels. More regions are likely to follow soon, as producers who rely on cheap labor inputs move further inland. Employers are willing to switch their jobs for wage differences as little as 10 $US. Such a dynamic labor market is unimaginable in labor union-driven Europe.

Last I’d like to pick up the question, whether people consume too much at Christmas. Here the answer is a definite “yes”. Though I don’t personally believe in Jesus and his it seems to me that this “heavenly day” is more an excuse to buy useless crap in a pre-Christmas shopping spree, mainly caused by clever marketing.

My main recommendation here is to question any established prejudices carefully and take everything with a pinch of salt, especially before the Christmas holidays.

Merry Christmas. 

Uncategorized

Blog Update

Today I threw in a couple hours and updated the theme, tuned it a little bit and added a nice album showing off my flickr pics. Reminds me a little bit of paying my flickr fee to yahoo for the next year. Maybe after xmas. *gg*

Religion, Science

Pseudo-sciences

Reason has built the modern world. It is a precious but also a fragile thing, which can be corroded by apparently harmless irrationality. We must favor verifiable evidence over private feeling. Otherwise we leave ourselves vulnerable to those who would obscure the truth.

The Enemies of Reason, “Slaves to Superstition” [1.01], 13 August 2007, timecode 00:46:47ff

Have you ever heard of those miraculous healers or mediums that can communicate with the dead, heal cancer or find hidden water veins.Some of my more distant relatives and parents used to be into this thing a little bit a couple years ago. When I was 10 or 12 they discovered a hidden water vein in my room (It’s in the 3rd floor) and had my bed relocated after that. I also used to be allergic to some kinds of pollen. For that I got a bottle of homeopathic wonder mixture (aka water). I had to take a spoon of it every day. That stuff never helped. Maybe I was too sceptic.Anyways. I think that those people and methods are a leftover from the dark ages and should be watched carefully. As long as they don’t harm anyone and just take unsuspecting people’s money it’s ok with me, but as soon as it’s about more serious matters we really have to stand up against them and uncover the truth with scientific methods. Here is a little roundup of things I mean by pseudo-science:

  • astrology
  • homeopathy
  • faith healing
  • cold reading
  • anything that can be called “alternative”
  • anything that uses “quantums” outside the original quantum theory

This list is far from complete and might be expanded soon. If you want to do some further research I can recommend an excellent movie by Richard Dawkins and a german podcast by the guys from CCC Ulm. There is also the Randi Educational Foundation, which promises 1,000,000 $ to anyone who can proof any kind of paranormal activity. I 12 years they never had to pay out the price!

Richard Dawkins – The Enemies Of Reason – Part1
Richard Dawkins – Enemies Of Reason – (Part 2)
Pseudowissenschaften oder warum Tesla sterben musste
Richard Dawkins – The Enemies Of Reason – Part1